Bitcoin Difficulty Holds Firm, Pointing to Limited Miner Capitulation
Bitcoin’s network difficulty posted a marginal 0.04% increase on Thursday, following three consecutive downward adjustments of –0.74%, –1.95% and –2.37%.
The muted uptick comes after a sustained stretch of difficulty increases that began in the third quarter, and suggests that recent disruptions — including reported shutdowns in China’s Xinjiang region — have had little measurable impact on the global mining network.
The latest adjustment leaves bitcoin hashprice below $38/PH/s, a level that continues to pressure miner margins. Despite the historically weak revenue environment since early November, the network’s hashrate has remained largely stable, indicating that overall computing power securing the network has not meaningfully retreated.
The resilience points to two parallel dynamics. On one hand, many operators appear to be holding their ground, running fleets at thin or negative margins in anticipation of improved conditions. On the other hand, shipments of newly manufactured mining equipment may still be coming online, offsetting older or less efficient machines that have been taken offline as hashprice hovers near cycle lows.
Measured against the all-time high in network difficulty recorded in late October, today’s level is only about 4% lower. Over the same period, bitcoin’s price has corrected by roughly 20%, widening the gap between miner revenues and operating costs. Historically, such divergences have often preceded sharper miner capitulation and steeper difficulty declines, as weaker operators are forced to unplug.
So far, that capitulation has yet to materialize at scale. The limited pullback in difficulty and the steadiness of hashrate suggest that the network is absorbing economic stress without a broad-based shutdown. Whether that resilience can persist will likely depend on how long hashprice remains depressed — and whether further price weakness or rising energy costs eventually force a larger cohort of miners to exit.
