Nebius Flags Revenue Delays, Plans Up to $45 Billion in 2027 Spending
Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) Group said capacity delays will push some revenue into next year as the AI cloud provider raised its 2026 capital spending forecast and outlined plans to invest as much as $45 billion in 2027.
The Amsterdam-based company now expects full-year revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion forecast, according to its third-quarter earnings materials on Thursday. Capital expenditures are expected to reach about $27 billion, above the previous $20 billion to $25 billion range, as Nebius invests in capacity for next year.
The revisions accompanied a 571% jump in third-quarter revenue to $980.8 million. About $325 million, or one-third of the total, came from non-recurring revenue associated with partnerships that deploy Nebius’s technology on infrastructure funded by other companies.
Nebius’s results underscore the gap between signing customers for AI computing services and bringing the infrastructure online to serve them. The company said some third-party capacity expected this year is now scheduled for the first half of 2027, while the underlying customer contracts remain in place.
The delays include its New Jersey operations, where Nebius is switching the power source to Bloom Energy fuel cells. Initial generation has been installed and capacity is being expanded, founder and Chief Executive Officer Arkady Volozh said in the shareholder letter.
Nebius had previously targeted an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by December. It now expects that metric to exceed $7 billion in February 2027, before New Jersey reaches full capacity. Its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin forecast remains about 40%.
For 2027, Nebius issued preliminary revenue guidance of $12 billion to $13 billion and capital spending of $40 billion to $45 billion. It aims to reach pre-tax break-even in the fourth quarter, after financing costs and assuming a five-year depreciation life for computing equipment. The company extended the useful life of server and networking equipment from four years to five starting in 2026.
Funding that expansion will depend heavily on customers paying in advance and borrowing against long-term contracts. Nebius expects prepayments and asset-backed financing tied to existing investment-grade customers to cover 75% to 85% of next year’s capital spending. It forecasts customer prepayments of $17 billion to $20 billion in 2027.
The company has also tapped external financing. In October, it announced a $3.5 billion senior secured facility from Citi, with a 364-day maturity, to support data-center development and purchases of graphics processing units.
Third-quarter group adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reached $465.8 million, compared with a $5.2 million loss a year earlier. The AI cloud business generated $973.8 million in revenue and a 53.2% adjusted EBITDA margin, compared with roughly 47% for the group.
Nebius nevertheless reported a net loss of $37.5 million, narrowing from $119.6 million a year earlier. Operating activities used $273 million in cash during the quarter, while capital spending totaled $7.3 billion. Cash and cash equivalents stood at $7.4 billion at September 30.
The company said customers have committed more than $12 billion in contract value since the beginning of the third quarter. Average prices per GPU-hour on new deals rose more than 20% from the second quarter.
Nebius is also changing how it presents its outlook. Starting in 2027, it plans to guide on revenue, pre-tax earnings and capacity rather than annualized revenue run rate, saying a measure based on a single month no longer adequately represents the business.
